目前有一个很大的'风暴'在predictions由英国MetOffice。他们$ P $十二月pdicted温和，潮湿的冬天，当我们有最低温度记录在北爱尔兰和坚实的积雪在地面上，通常是罕见的。

Currently there's a big 'storm' over the predictions by the MetOffice in the UK. They predicted a mild, wet winter, while we have the coldest temperature on record in Northern Ireland and solid snow on the ground, normally rare in December.

这件事情，我很想有一个戏，我不能说我自称我可以击败他们，但不知道什么样的算法是那里现在，人们正在使用？做他们的基地，它集是什么？

It's something I'd love to have a play with, not that I'm claiming I can beat them, but was wondering what algorithms are out there currently that people are working with? What datasets do they base it on?

可能性presumably包括神经网络模型的输入与健身为的prediction的准确性，复杂的数学模型，甚至是昨天一样这是我听说过索赔prediction（虽然不看到证据），它是更可靠的单日prediction（虽然在那之后很明显脱落）。

Possibilities presumably include neural networks modelling input with fitness being the accuracy of the prediction, complex mathematical models, or even the 'same as yesterday' prediction which I've heard claim (although not seen evidence) that it's more reliable for single-day prediction (although obviously drops off after that).

在理想情况下想从一些开发商听到气象中心或谁可以访问的超级计算机，它会是有趣的，听到的方法...

Ideally like to hear from some developers in weather centres or who get access to the supercomputers, it'd be interesting to hear approaches...

推荐答案

总之，如果你打算建立和运行自己的预测模型，你将面临三大问题：

In short, if you intend to build and run your own forecasting model, you will face three major problems:

进入观察 在数学模型的建立 的计算能力来运行模型

据我所知，获得了良好的气象观测花费了很多钱。 你需要有来自全球各地的观测和模拟海洋和大气的状态，整个地球。或者，你需要从别人谁计算的全球模式所谓的侧边界条件。

Access to observation

As far as I know, access to good meteorological observations costs a lot of money. You need to have observations from all over the globe and model the state of oceans and atmosphere for the whole planet. Alternatively, you need to obtain so-called lateral boundary conditions from someone who calculates a global model.

我不，我从来没有参加了与气象局，但我用口和优化版本的统一模型，以一台超级计算机在我中心几年前。以下是我记得的模式。

I'm not and I've never been affiliated with Met Office, but I used to port and optimize a version of their Unified Model to a supercomputer at our center a couple of years ago. Here's how I remember the model.

气象局一直在开发自己的统一模型最后20+多年来，我们正在谈论数百万包含艺术的海洋/大气模型和数值算法的状态code线。请查看的（过时）用户手册中使用的科学方法一窥这部分他们的模型。它是一种水果，聪明人的大型社区而奋斗，资金雄厚，广泛研究了半个世纪。如果有一个简单的解决方案，将始终如一地给予较复杂的模型更好的效果，有人现在可能已经实现了。

Met Office has been developing their Unified Model for the last 20+ years, we're talking about millions of lines of code that contain state of the art ocean/atmospheric models and numerical algorithms. Check out this section of (outdated) User Guide for a glimpse of scientific methods used in their model. It's a fruit of, give or take, half a century of well-funded, extensive research by a large community of smart people. If there was a simple solution that would consistently give better results than the complex models, someone would've probably implemented it by now.

最后，我想这是很难通过从头开始构建一个模型来获取天气预报，甚至远程令人满意的结果，除非你是一个硕士/博士大气物理学和你有几年的空闲时间在你的手中。

To conclude, I guess it's very hard to get even remotely satisfactory results in weather forecasting by building a model from scratch, unless you're a MSc/PhD in atmospheric physics and you've got a couple of years of free time on your hands.

第一个预测模型是在20世纪的机器上不能与今天的手机相匹配的中间运行，因此，从技术上讲，你可以计算出的的东西的电脑上。然而，这种类型的工作往往是做的非常，非常强大的机器。事实上， 10个系统中的500强是专用于天气预报和气候研究。

The first forecasting models were run in the middle of 20th century on machines that cannot match with today's cellphones, so, technically, you could calculate something on your PC. However, this type of job is often done on very, very powerful machines. In fact, 10 systems in the Top500 are dedicated solely to weather forecasting and climate research.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_forecasting#How_models_create_forecasts http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_$p$pdiction http://research.metoffice.gov.uk/research/nwp/numerical/operational/index.html http://ncas-cms.nerc.ac.uk/html_umdocs/UM55_User_Guide/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_forecasting#How_models_create_forecasts http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction http://research.metoffice.gov.uk/research/nwp/numerical/operational/index.html http://ncas-cms.nerc.ac.uk/html_umdocs/UM55_User_Guide/

更新这是可能获得源$ C ​​$ C WRF模式免费，再加上一些气象数据。需要注意的是WRF，统一型号，COAMPS等众多车型主要是在Fortran语言编写。

UPDATE It's possible to obtain the source code of the WRF model for free, together with some met data. Note that WRF, Unified Model, COAMPS, and many other models are written primarily in Fortran.